Nuclearization of Indian Ocean Region

Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia

Authors

  • Anum A Khan Associate Director, Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.58329/criss.v2i3.32

Abstract

Abstract Views: 749

This research focuses on nuclearization of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by India and its impact on strategic stability between India and Pakistan. The research question addressed in this paper is how nuclearization of IOR by India can have negative implications for South Asian strategic stability? With the help of major powers through Military Logistic Support Agreements and by being a member of alliances like Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, India will have access to more sophisticated technologies in the IOR. This Indian naval nuclear and military exceptionalism will assist India to use coercive strategies and nuclear blackmail vis-à-vis Pakistan. This will negatively impact strategic stability between India and Pakistan. Pakistan will have to consequently acquire assured second-strike capability as well as, invest in antisubmarine warfare capabilities including swarms of unmanned underwater vehicles controlled by artificial intelligence. The findings indicate that as India will not revise its naval nuclear ambitions, Pakistan must work for a progressing economic outlook so that it can opt for assured second strike capability in the future. The research methodology utilized in this article is qualitative. Both primary and secondary sources of data were employed in this research. Interviews were conducted for the collection of primary data.

Keywords:

Indian ocean region, Nuclearization, South Asia , Strategic stability

References

Agalega: A glimpse of India’s remote island military base. (2022). Retrieved March 15, 2023, from https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/agalega-glimpse-india-s-remote-island-military-base

Atomic Archive (2023). “Mutual Deterrence” Speech by Sec. Of Defense Robert McNamara. Retrieved May 24, 2023, from https://www.atomicarchive.com/resources/documents/deterrence/mcnamara-deterrence.html

Baruah, D. M. (2022). Maritime Competition in the Indian Ocean. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Retrieved March 15, 2023

Bogatov, S., Kisselev, V., Sorokovikova, O., & Vysotsky, V. (2009). Radiation consequences of hypothetical accidents associated with transportation of spent nuclear fuel of nuclear submarines aboard floating technical base. Radioprotection, 44(5), 159–164. https://doi.org/10.1051/radiopro/20095034

Bose, H. V. P. and S. (2023). Andaman and Nicobar can lift India’s maritime capacity. ORF. Retrieved March 14, 2023, from https://www.orfonline.org/research/andaman-and-nicobar-can-lift-indias-maritime-capacity/

East Asia Forum. (2010, November 30).Dasgupta, S. Cohen P. Stephen. The Drag on India’s Military Growth. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-drag-on-indias-military-growth/

Frequent Incidents of Mishap in Indian Navy. (2014, December). https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=112383

Growing threats of Hindutva politics. (2022, November 12). The Express Tribune. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2385876/growing-threats-of-hindutva-politics

India Gains Access to Oman’s Duqm Port, Putting the Indian Ocean Geopolitical Contest in the Spotlight. The Diplomat. (2018, February). Retrieved April 6, 2023, from https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/india-gains-access-to-omans-duqm-port-putting-the-indian-ocean-geopolitical-contest-in-the-spotlight/

India Submarine Capabilities. (2022). Nuclear Threat Initiative. Retrieved March 14, 2023, from https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/india-submarine-capabilities/

India Tests Submarine, Land Missiles. Arms Control Association. (2022). Retrieved March 15, 2023, from https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2022-11/news/india-tests-submarine-land-missiles

India’s Interests in the South China Sea by Jemimah Joanne C. Villaruel (Vol. II, No. 8, March 2015) Foreign Service Institute. Retrieved March 15, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1080/10803920.2015.1006519

Iwanek, K. (2019). No, Pakistan’s Gwadar Port Is Not a Chinese Naval Base (Just Yet). Retrieved March 15, 2023, from https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/no-pakistans-gwadar-port-is-not-a-chinese-naval-base-just-yet/

Khan, A. A. (2018, November 9). India-Pakistan Relations: Nuclear Doctrine, Militarization and Security Dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region.

Khan, A. A., & et al. (2023). CISS Strat Review I - The National Security and Defense Strategies of the United States: Implications for South Asia. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781412952446.n495

Khan, H. (2022, June 27). How the USA’s Bid to Pitch India as a counterweight to China is destabilizing South Asia? Modern Diplomacy.

MIT Center for International Studies. (2019). Are ballistic missile submarines still the best deterrent for the United States?, Retrieved April 6, 2023.

New naval base PNS Hameed commissioned. (2016, November 18). Dawn News. http://www.dawn.com/news/1296555

Official website of Indian Navy. (n.d.). Retrieved March 14, 2023, from https://indiannavy.nic.in/

Panda, A. (2018). India’s Lone Arihant-class SSBN Has Been Out of Service for Months. https://thediplomat.com/2018/01/indias-lone-arihant-class-ssbn-has-been-out-of-service-for-months/

Perkovich, G., & Dalton, T. (2016). Not war, not peace?: motivating Pakistan to prevent cross-border terrorism. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199467495.001.0001

Poonawala, R. (1971). The Afro-Asian Ocean. Pakistan Horizon, 24(4), 30–43.

Raksha Anirveda (2022). India Needs to Improve Shipbuilding Capacity for National Security. Retrieved April 6, 2023, from https://raksha-anirveda.com/india-needs-to-improve-shipbuilding-capacity-for-national-security/

Saha, P. (2021). India Calibrates its South China Sea Approach. Observer Research Foundation. Retrieved March 15, 2023, from https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-calibrates-its-south-china-sea-approach/

Saxina, V. K. (2020, October 27). Logistic Support Agreements- A Growing Footprint. Vivekananda International Foundation. https://www.vifindia.org/article/2020/october/27/logistic-support-agreements-a-growing-footprint

Scott, D. (2018) India’s Drive for a ‘Blue Water’ Navy, Journal of Military and Strategic Studies. https://jmss.org/article/view/57675

Sea Based Deterrence and Indian Security. (2001). Retrieved March 15, 2023, from https://ciaotest.cc.columbia.edu/olj/sa/sa_apr01sav01.html

Seychelles News Agency (2023, March 15). India to install coast guard radar system for Seychelles Coast Guard.

Sial, S. A., & Ghaffar, T. (2021). India’s Undersea Nuclear Deterrence Impact on Indian Ocean Region’s Strategic Stability. CISS Insight Journal, 9(1), Article 1.

Strategic Vision Institute. (2019). Nuclearization of the Indian Ocean and its Implications on Strategic Stability Retrieved March 14, 2023, fromm https://thesvi.org/svi-in-house-roundtable-discussion-report-20thnovember-2019-nuclearization-of-the-indian-ocean-and-its-implications-on-strategic-stability/

Strategic Vision Institute. (2022, June 29). Strategic Environment in Indian Ocean Region and Policy Options for Pakistan.

Sutton, H. I. (2022, January 19). Israel’s Submarine Secret: New Dolphin-IIs Could Have VLS. Naval News. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/01/israels-submarine-secret-new-dolphin-class-boat-could-have-vls/

Team, Q. (2020, October 10). Outgoing Pakistan Navy Chief Sets Massive 50-Ship Fleet Vision. Quwa. https://quwa.org/2020/10/10/outgoing-pakistan-navy-chief-reveals-50-ship-vision-2/

The White House (2022) Biden Harris Administrations National Security Strategy, Retrieved March 14, 2023.

Ullah, S. (2019). Analysing India’s Naval Development Strategy. IPRI Journal, 19(1), 86–110. https://doi.org/10.31945/iprij.190104

Will India Try Again for a Military Base in Seychelles? (2022). Retrieved March 15, 2023, from https://thediplomat.com/2022/07/will-india-try-again-for-a-military-base-in-seychelles/

Zeeshan, M. (2021). Flying Blind: India's Quest for Global Leadership. Penguin Random House India Private Limited. https://doi.org/10.1080/03068374.2021.1917193

Published

2023-09-30

How to Cite

Khan, A. A. (2023). Nuclearization of Indian Ocean Region: Implications for Strategic Stability in South Asia. CARC Research in Social Sciences, 2(3), 68–75. https://doi.org/10.58329/criss.v2i3.32

Issue

Section

Articles