Determinants of Intercity Migration in Pakistan

A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

Abstract

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Intercity migration is one of the most important sources of rapid population growth in big cities, especially in the developing countries. Cities differ from each other in terms of the availability of economic and social opportunities which motivate people to move from less populous areas to more populous areas with a view to benefit from better socio-economic opportunities. The model of the study is based on the extended gravity model of migration. The dynamic panel data approach is being used to examine the determinants of intercity migration. The data is taken from the Labour Force Survey of Pakistan and Development Statistics of each of the four provinces of Pakistan from 2010-2011 to 2020-21 covering fourteen major cities of the country.  The results of the study showed that the cities with a higher economic status offered more employment opportunities, higher average expected real incomes, greater influx of migration and increased average years of schooling. Moreover, it was found that with higher incidence of reported crime, a greater extent of congestion and an extended distance inhibited an individual’s motivation to migrate.